Early voting on Saturday overtook the raw numbers at this point during the last midterm, driven by higher turnout among Democrats and independents with lower turnout among Republicans, although the percentage of the electorate that has voted appears to be slightly lower.
As of Saturday morning — 10 days before this year’s Nov. 3 general election — 238,732 New Mexicans had already cast a ballot, according to the Secretary of State’s Office. Of them, 132,591, or 56%, were Democrats, and 68,120, or 29%, were Republicans. Declined-to-state or unaffiliated voters made up 15% at 36,284 total votes.
On Oct. 30, 2022 — nine days before that year’s Nov. 8 general election — 234,925 ballots had been cast. Democrats made up 54% of that total at a little more than 127,000, while Republicans made up 33% at almost 79,000 and independents 12% at a little more than 27,000 ballots.
The electorate is larger than it was four years ago — there were 1.36 million registered voters in the state on Sept. 30, 2022, compared to 1.46 million now. Although more ballots have been cast this year, they represent about 16.4% of the state’s registered voters having voted already, compared to 17.3% who had voted by Oct. 30, 2022.
This shift in turnout is occurring even as the share and absolute number of registered Democrats in the electorate has declined. Democrats made up 44% of the state’s electorate, or a little more than 601,000 voters, in September 2022; on the same date this year about 577,000 New Mexicans, or 39.5% of the electorate, were registered Democrats.
The number of registered Republicans has increased slightly in the last four years, from 422,567 to 445,215, although their share of the electorate has dropped slightly from 31% to 30.5% as the number of registered voters has grown. The independent category has surged from 305,769 voters or 22.5% of the electorate in September 2022 to 409,219, or 28%, now.
Democrats in recent years have generally been more likely to vote early, with Republicans and independents more likely to wait until Election Day. The Democratic advantage has been chipped away at slightly since the end of the first week of early voting, when Democrats made up almost 60% of the votes cast and Republicans 26%.
Both parties have been encouraging people to get out and vote early.
“Early Voting, in-person, is UNDERWAY NOW in the Great State of New Mexico,” President Donald Trump posted on X on Thursday. “If you have a mail-in ballot, return it immediately and, if not, GO VOTE at the Polls RIGHT NOW, and get everyone you know to VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN IN EVERY RACE, UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT!”
Democrats have similarly been urging people to vote early, with many of the state party’s Facebook posts since expanded in-person early voting opened on Oct. 17 directing people to voting locations or noting the advantage Democrats have sustained over Republicans in early voting numbers.
“Democrats are voting and Republicans are staying home,” the party noted in a Thursday post sharing an Albuquerque Journal story on last week’s turnout. “Make sure you do your part! Americans are sending a message these midterms.”
County changes, 2024 comparison
As of Saturday, 28,195 people had voted in Santa Fe County, with 21,119, or 75%, of those votes coming from registered Democrats. Declined-to-state voters made up 15% of the votes so far at 4,215, while Republicans made up 10% at 2,729.
On Oct. 30, 2022, 26,324 people had voted in the county. The proportion of Democrats was the same at 75%, but the Republican share was slightly higher that year at almost 12.5% while the independent share was lower at 11.44%.
The statewide pattern is more noticeable in Doña Ana County, which resembles New Mexico as a whole in being Democratic-leaning but not as overwhelmingly so as Santa Fe. Turnout on Oct. 30, 2022, was at 17,971 compared to 21,876 as of this Saturday. The Democratic share has gone from 55% in 2022 to 57% now, while the independent share jumped from 14% to 18% and the Republican share dropped from 30% to 24%.
Midterm years see substantially lower turnout — in New Mexico and everywhere else — compared to presidential elections, and this year seems to be no exception. As of Oct. 25, 2024, — 11 days before that year’s election — 324,479 people had cast ballots statewide.
The Democratic advantage was also notably less pronounced in 2024, with 50% of those ballots coming from Democrats — outpacing their 43% share in the electorate at the time — but with 36% coming from registered Republicans, more than the 32% of the state’s registered voters they represented that October.
